PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 5 games
Magnus
Norma · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
flacko · 4 games
Tusk
Fernans · 4 games
Warlock
flacko · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
Passion UA
Tinysignature
QBFY · 32 games
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 19 games
Snapfire
QBFY · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
420 picks · 390 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 197 bans
Puck
342 picks · 893 bans
Pugna
315 picks · 358 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 228 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 138 bans
Batrider
276 picks · 675 bans
Queen of Pain
273 picks · 828 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:8
Inner Circle 41%Passion UA 59%
The model gave 59% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinyowaai
Troll WarlordCrystallize
Nature's Prophetdualrazee
Shadow FiendMoonlight
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Void SpiritBatyuk
HoodwinkFernans
Snapfirekreker
Disruptorflacko
TinyQBFY
Game 2prediction correct24:37
Inner Circle 40%Passion UA 60%
The model gave 60% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
TimbersawBatyuk
Storm Spiritdualrazee
UrsaCrystallize
MarsNorma
Primal BeastMoonlight
Snapfireflacko
Jakirokreker
HoodwinkFernans
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Game 3prediction correct35:42
Inner Circle 42%Passion UA 58%
The model gave 58% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 57:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckdualrazee
Nature's ProphetBatyuk
Svenyowaai
LifestealerCrystallize
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
LeshracMoonlight
PugnaFernans
Jakirokreker
Baneflacko
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 63%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3