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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 17 games
35%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 13 games
31%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 13 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
18%
Sven
Sven
yowaai · 11 games
27%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 11 games
36%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 32 games
66%
Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 29 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 24 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 22 games
64%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
737 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 639 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
532 picks · 279 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1187 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
431 picks · 264 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
427 picks · 701 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 459 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
377 picks · 243 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total80% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:24
Inner Circle 32%Passion UA 68%
The model gave 68% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
Viperспортик
54% · 28 games53% · 163 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Luna
Lunayowaai
51% · 30 games60% · 34 games
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
46% · 361 game46% · 151 game
Dragon KnightBatyuk
Dragon Knight
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerxsvampire
53% · 37 games50% · 86 games
Snapfirekreker
Snapfire
49% · 22 games
PudgeQBFY
Pudge
Game 2prediction correct19:43
Inner Circle 35%Passion UA 65%
The model gave 65% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonyowaai
48% · 188 games51% · 62 games
LinaMoonlight
Lina
Viper
Viperспортик
55% · 18 games52% · 207 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Marci
MarciNorma
55% · 160 games44% · 103 games
Void SpiritBatyuk
Void Spirit
Tusk
Tuskxsvampire
51% · 363 games50% · 199 games
Snapfirekreker
Snapfire
46% · 158 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct8:32
Inner Circle 31%Passion UA 69%
The model gave 69% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
50% · 258 games53% · 101 game
Void SpiritBatyuk
Void Spirit
Viper
Viperспортик
55% · 25 games52% · 236 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
49% · 226 games50% · 15 games
ClinkzMoonlight
Clinkz
Ringmaster
Ringmasterxsvampire
55% · 163 games49% · 163 games
Snapfirekreker
Snapfire
38% · 157 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 80%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3