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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
strongboyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 20 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 17 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
27%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
flacko · 14 games
36%

strongboys

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 4 games
75%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Ponlo · 3 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
541 picks · 879 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 389 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 641 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
464 picks · 595 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
398 picks · 833 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 585 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
348 picks · 571 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 486 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 69%
Hero pool strength66% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Inner Circle 44%strongboys 56%
The model gave 56% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
45% · 209 games58% · 74 games
ClinkzLowskill
Clinkz
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
47% · 186 games52% · 289 games
TimbersawChodΣX
Timbersaw
Slardar
Slardarlaise
43% · 140 games46% · 133 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
46% · 80 games56% · 314 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroSe
46% · 255 games64% · 60 games
Treant ProtectorTobi
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed34:17
Inner Circle 47%strongboys 53%
The model gave 53% on strongboys — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend423
57% · 203 games47% · 253 games
GyrocopterLowskill
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
48% · 364 games47% · 284 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Underlord
Underlordlaise
50% · 114 games47% · 156 games
TidehunterChodΣX
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderDaze
51% · 326 games57% · 144 games
ChenTobi
Chen
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSe
48% · 57 games47% · 227 games
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct36:35
Inner Circle 45%strongboys 55%
The model gave 55% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 1:09:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa423
50% · 180 games52% · 221 game
MuertaLowskill
Muerta
Void Spirit
Void Spiritniche
49% · 144 games51% · 131 game
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Razor
Razorlaise
47% · 49 games54% · 333 games
Centaur WarrunnerChodΣX
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyDaze
46% · 307 games50% · 216 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Warlock
WarlockSe
43% · 267 games63% · 46 games
Treant ProtectorTobi
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 54%
Series resultstrongboys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3