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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 22 games
41%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 21 game
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 17 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 15 games
53%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 26 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 20 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 18 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 17 games
35%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Fly · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 941 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 438 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 643 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
484 picks · 645 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
441 picks · 962 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 656 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 538 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
386 picks · 236 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
Inner Circle 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawlaise
52% · 223 games51% · 256 games
MuertaTimado
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
52% · 446 games52% · 254 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
50% · 348 games50% · 208 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyJing
49% · 495 games47% · 622 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Dazzle
DazzleSe
42% · 174 games55% · 346 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct20:17
Inner Circle 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 50:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmother423
46% · 32 games49% · 165 games
LeshracAbed
Leshrac
Pangolier
Pangolierniche
49% · 229 games47% · 164 games
WindrangerTimado
Windranger
Slardar
Slardarlaise
53% · 206 games51% · 210 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Muerta
MuertaJing
48% · 185 games53% · 16 games
LargoFly
Largo
Dazzle
DazzleSe
50% · 125 games55% · 222 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 74%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2