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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 20 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 18 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
27%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
flacko · 15 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
57%

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
raregods · 11 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 10 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
raregods · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
584 picks · 927 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
546 picks · 419 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
496 picks · 661 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
493 picks · 637 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 928 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 642 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 525 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
370 picks · 229 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Inner Circle 66%VP.Prodigy 34%
The model gave 66% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Game 2prediction correct
Inner Circle 66%VP.Prodigy 34%
The model gave 66% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Game 3prediction correct
Inner Circle 66%VP.Prodigy 34%
The model gave 66% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 66%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3