Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionIRInstant Reflexxloss 0:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TMTrouble Makers Rebornwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Instant Reflexx
No games played over 6 months.
Trouble Makers Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
761 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 470 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1007 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 941 bans
Doom
395 picks · 600 bans
Undying
392 picks · 603 bans
Nature's Prophet
386 picks · 662 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Instant Reflexx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Instant Reflexx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Instant Reflexx 51%Trouble Makers Reborn 49%
The model gave 51% on Instant Reflexx — the game was taken by Trouble Makers Reborn.
Model check result
Model favoriteInstant Reflexx · 51%
Series resultTrouble Makers Reborn 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1