Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision · BO3
result vs prediction
InterActive Philippineswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ascent Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
InterActive Philippines
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Ascent Esports
Clockwerkoften banned
czy · 5 games
Lion
TrazaM · 5 games
Muerta
TrazaM · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 4 games
Dark Willow
TrazaM · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
czy · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
472 picks · 605 bans
Muerta
461 picks · 396 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 565 bans
Clockwerk
433 picks · 540 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 780 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 484 bans
Magnus
403 picks · 899 bans
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 35%
Hero pool strength57% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% InterActive Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:19
InterActive Philippines 58%Ascent Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNishababy
Phantom AssassinKry
63% · 4 games
WarlockTrazaM
50% · 4 games
Bounty Hunterczy
Game 2prediction correct48:22
InterActive Philippines 56%Ascent Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 29:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyNishababy
Phantom AssassinKry
55% · 56 games
Nyx Assassinczy
46% · 52 games
LichTrazaM
Model check result
Model favoriteInterActive Philippines · 62%
Series resultInterActive Philippines 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2