Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
InterActive Philippineswin 1:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Carstenszloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
InterActive Philippines
No games played over 6 months.
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
747 picks · 608 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 472 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1013 bans
Tiny
403 picks · 377 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 962 bans
Doom
392 picks · 632 bans
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Carstensz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
InterActive Philippines 40%Carstensz 60%
The model gave 60% on Carstensz — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz · 60%
Series resultInterActive Philippines 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1