ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionIEInterlaken Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spiky Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Interlaken Esports
Doomoften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
Spiky Gaming
Muerta
TK · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Dark Willow
TK · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
484 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
454 picks · 572 bans
Batrider
422 picks · 526 bans
Lion
414 picks · 226 bans
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 689 bans
Phoenix
404 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 594 bans
Beastmaster
359 picks · 927 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Interlaken Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:17
Interlaken Esports 41%Spiky Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 23:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback冷鸟
SniperButterflyEffect
38% · 60 games
Gyrocopterukiyo
40% · 43 games
Tiny生死
55% · 47 games
HoodwinkTK
57% · 40 games
Shadow DemonRedPanda
Game 2prediction correct12:27
Interlaken Esports 41%Spiky Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan冷鸟
Bristlebackukiyo
31% · 32 games
TinyButterflyEffect
50% · 8 games
Magnus生死
43% · 3 games
SilencerRedPanda
50% · 6 games
EarthshakerTK
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 72%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2