Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ancient Tribeloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Rubick
Immersion · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Immersion · 7 games
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
Ancient Tribe
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 16 games
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 10 games
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
994 picks · 673 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
Nature's Prophet
601 picks · 948 bans
Tusk
558 picks · 434 bans
Snapfire
523 picks · 357 bans
Death Prophet
511 picks · 1143 bans
Treant Protector
510 picks · 505 bans
Disruptor
493 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Ancient Tribe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:27
Into The Breach 43%Ancient Tribe 57%
The model gave 57% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 53:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeOtaker
Morphlinglil pleb
Death ProphetSupream^
BatriderMo13ei
AxeXibbe
Dragon KnightMikSa`
Crystal MaidenImmersion
SnapfireAlexxo
RubickRESPECT
EnchantressLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct18:32
Into The Breach 45%Ancient Tribe 55%
The model gave 55% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 46:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSupream^
Anti-Magelil pleb
LycanXibbe
ViperMo13ei
MarciOtaker
TidehunterMikSa`
HoodwinkRESPECT
TinyAlexxo
Skywrath MageImmersion
UndyingLeBronDota
Game 3prediction missed23:7
Into The Breach 45%Ancient Tribe 55%
The model gave 55% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaOtaker
Anti-Magelil pleb
Shadow FiendSupream^
TimbersawMikSa`
Dragon KnightXibbe
Death ProphetMo13ei
MiranaRESPECT
DisruptorAlexxo
Shadow DemonImmersion
UndyingLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteAncient Tribe · 58%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3