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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Into The Breach

Rubick
Rubick
Immersion · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
36%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
25%

Ancient Tribe

Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 16 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MikSa` · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
27%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
751 picks · 623 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
614 picks · 535 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
550 picks · 1335 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
548 picks · 1083 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
473 picks · 524 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
469 picks · 967 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1167 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
449 picks · 639 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:36
Into The Breach 51%Ancient Tribe 49%
The model gave 51% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNande
53% · 90 games52% · 189 games
TimbersawMo13ei
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSupream^
50% · 210 games47% · 56 games
Phantom Lancerlil pleb
Phantom Lancer
Magnus
MagnusXibbe
46% · 211 games53% · 294 games
BeastmasterWuiter
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickRESPECT
44% · 544 games53% · 237 games
SilencerLeBronDota
Silencer
53% · 279 games
TechiesAlexxo
Techies
Game 2prediction correct40:27
Into The Breach 53%Ancient Tribe 47%
The model gave 53% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageNande
65% · 39 games40% · 74 games
Death ProphetMo13ei
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
53% · 163 games46% · 86 games
Void Spiritlil pleb
Void Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderXibbe
37% · 48 games65% · 66 games
MagnusWuiter
Magnus
Oracle
OracleRESPECT
49% · 67 games39% · 27 games
VenomancerLeBronDota
Venomancer
54% · 64 games
Skywrath MageAlexxo
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct20:45
Into The Breach 50%Ancient Tribe 50%
The model gave 50% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaNande
40% · 11 games56% · 265 games
Ember SpiritMo13ei
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
52% · 358 games51% · 59 games
Dark SeerWuiter
Dark Seer
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderXibbe
35% · 59 games56% · 137 games
Void Spiritlil pleb
Void Spirit
Undying
UndyingRESPECT
54% · 238 games38% · 46 games
Shadow DemonAlexxo
Shadow Demon
53% · 159 games
SilencerLeBronDota
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 53%
Series resultAncient Tribe 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3