Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AAzimutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
No games played over 6 months.
Azimut
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
454 picks · 987 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 591 bans
Death Prophet
371 picks · 697 bans
Mars
352 picks · 610 bans
Earth Spirit
327 picks · 303 bans
Grimstroke
288 picks · 256 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 183 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 396 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:27
Into The Breach 66%Azimut 34%
The model gave 66% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 58:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 66%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1