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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Into The Breach

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ATF · 11 games
64%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Era · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Xibbe · 11 games
64%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Xibbe · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Era · 9 games
67%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Xibbe · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Supream^ · 8 games
63%

Hippomaniacs

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
470 picks · 191 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 587 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 872 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 308 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 445 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 18%
Hero pool strength62% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:5
Into The Breach 85%Hippomaniacs 15%
The model gave 85% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 21:37.
Game 2prediction correct33:9
Into The Breach 85%Hippomaniacs 15%
The model gave 85% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 26:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 85%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2