Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Meta4Prowin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
No games played over 6 months.
Meta4Pro
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
Lion
Niqua · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Clockwerk
Niqua · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 923 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 556 bans
Mars
325 picks · 595 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 556 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 255 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 168 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 400 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Meta4Pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:33
Into The Breach 60%Meta4Pro 40%
The model gave 60% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Meta4Pro in 35:42.
Game 2prediction correct18:51
Into The Breach 60%Meta4Pro 40%
The model gave 60% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 34:49.
Game 3prediction missed47:38
Into The Breach 60%Meta4Pro 40%
The model gave 60% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Meta4Pro in 45:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 60%
Series resultMeta4Pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3