Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Invokeroften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 5 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 5 games
Winter Wyvern
Xibbe · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Supream^ · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
Chessie · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 4 games
Rubick
Era · 4 games
Team Bald Reborn
Earth Spiritoften banned
5up · 3 games
Grimstroke
Pablo · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
Linaoften banned
5up · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 2 games
Snapfire
Pablo · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Rajjix · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Excalibur · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
411 picks · 940 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 537 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 698 bans
Mars
327 picks · 549 bans
Grimstroke
313 picks · 311 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 220 bans
Lion
283 picks · 155 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength62% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:43
Into The Breach 45%Team Bald Reborn 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 56:46.
Game 2prediction correct29:33
Into The Breach 45%Team Bald Reborn 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 40:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 55%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2