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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Into The Breach

Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ari · 17 games
76%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 16 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Supream^ · 11 games
82%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 10 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 9 games
44%

Team Bald Reborn

Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Gorgc · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
Excalibur · 14 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Excalibur · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 10 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Pablo · 10 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
bengan · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 8 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
707 picks · 556 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
501 picks · 653 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
498 picks · 776 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
476 picks · 997 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 420 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
327 picks · 399 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
309 picks · 155 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
298 picks · 556 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Into The Breach
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total63% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
Into The Breach 56%Team Bald Reborn 44%
The model gave 56% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 28:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackOtaker
53% · 69 games55% · 134 games
VisageExcalibur
Visage
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXibbe
50% · 171 game51% · 70 games
PudgeGorgc
Pudge
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSupream^
47% · 109 games52% · 289 games
MarciZipZaper
Marci
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKidaro
47% · 45 games45% · 191 game
HoodwinkPablo
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinyAri
49% · 307 games49% · 17 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct
Into The Breach 63%Team Bald Reborn 37%
The model gave 63% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 63%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2