European Pro League Season 23 · BO5
result vs prediction
Into The Breachloss 2:3series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Zero Tenacitywin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Batridersignature
Lelis · 9 games
Magnussignature
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 6 games
Lich
Se · 5 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
423 · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 3 games
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 26 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 25 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 22 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
Lion
Pablo · 19 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 18 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 17 games
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
487 picks · 420 bans
Phoenix
449 picks · 526 bans
Batrider
444 picks · 544 bans
Clockwerk
443 picks · 564 bans
Lion
433 picks · 231 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 779 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 432 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:24
Into The Breach 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 55:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainCopy
TerrorbladeRetsu
Morphling423
EarthshakerStojkov
LycanMinD_ContRoL
BeastmasterNefrit
TuskLelis
EnchantressLeBronDota
Shadow DemonSe
Nyx AssassinPablo
Game 2prediction correct36:37
Into The Breach 61%Zero Tenacity 39%
The model gave 61% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 1:03:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer423
UrsaRetsu
Earth SpiritCopy
BeastmasterNefrit
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
PangolierStojkov
ZeusSe
PhoenixLeBronDota
GrimstrokeLelis
Nyx AssassinPablo
Game 3prediction missed17:35
Into The Breach 61%Zero Tenacity 39%
The model gave 61% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother423
GyrocopterRetsu
Earth SpiritCopy
PangolierStojkov
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
Primal BeastNefrit
ZeusLelis
EnigmaLeBronDota
ChenSe
Nyx AssassinPablo
Game 4prediction missed16:24
Into The Breach 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade423
MorphlingRetsu
Earth SpiritCopy
LycanNefrit
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
Ember SpiritStojkov
Nyx AssassinLelis
EnchantressLeBronDota
LichSe
LionPablo
Game 5prediction missed24:32
Into The Breach 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 51:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre423
Phantom AssassinRetsu
InvokerCopy
PhoenixNefrit
MuertaLelis
PangolierStojkov
ZeusSe
WarlockLeBronDota
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
Nyx AssassinPablo
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 69%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5