Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Inverseloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Balrogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inverse
Gyrocopter
Adrx · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Migi · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Adrx · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Slaw · 3 games
Axe
ArzenT · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
ArzenT · 2 games
Earth Spirit
MonHty · 2 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 2 games
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
416 picks · 298 bans
Mars
390 picks · 565 bans
Snapfire
314 picks · 175 bans
Queen of Pain
313 picks · 368 bans
Weaver
312 picks · 735 bans
Kunkka
247 picks · 427 bans
Spirit Breaker
235 picks · 331 bans
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:26
Inverse 30%Balrogs 70%
The model gave 70% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 21:03.
Game 2prediction correct16:41
Inverse 30%Balrogs 70%
The model gave 70% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 28:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 70%
Series resultBalrogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2