Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Inverseloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EgoBoyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inverse
Grimstrokeoften banned
Slaw · 8 games
Ogre Magi
Slaw · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ArzenT · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Migi · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 3 games
Gyrocopter
DM · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Parker · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Slaw · 2 games
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
396 picks · 1015 bans
Mars
372 picks · 604 bans
Lion
365 picks · 190 bans
Grimstroke
362 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
321 picks · 510 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 679 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 226 bans
Snapfire
264 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Inverse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
Inverse 42%EgoBoys 58%
The model gave 58% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 27:29.
Game 2prediction correct50:43
Inverse 42%EgoBoys 58%
The model gave 58% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 58:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 58%
Series resultEgoBoys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2