Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Inversewin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KID+4loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inverse
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Lich
Slaw · 1 game
KID+4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 290 bans
Marci
283 picks · 529 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 249 bans
Undying
260 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 499 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 541 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 318 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% KID+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% KID+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:12
Inverse 45%KID+4 55%
The model gave 55% on KID+4 — the game was taken by Inverse in 21:45.
Game 2prediction correct33:19
Inverse 45%KID+4 55%
The model gave 55% on KID+4 — the game was taken by KID+4 in 38:37.
Game 3prediction missed34:38
Inverse 45%KID+4 55%
The model gave 55% on KID+4 — the game was taken by Inverse in 48:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteKID+4 · 55%
Series resultInverse 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3