PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 23 games
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
344 picks · 282 bans
Jakiro
342 picks · 255 bans
Pangolier
332 picks · 441 bans
Hoodwink
311 picks · 349 bans
Rubick
308 picks · 301 bans
Enchantress
303 picks · 518 bans
Windranger
303 picks · 436 bans
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:19
Invictus Gaming 68%Alliance 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Alliance in 39:36.
Game 2prediction missed37:16
Invictus Gaming 68%Alliance 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Alliance in 32:22.
Game 3prediction missed32:11
Invictus Gaming 68%Alliance 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Alliance in 33:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 68%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3