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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
TK · 6 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
phoenix · 6 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
TK · 5 games
100%
Io
Iooften banned
TK · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RedPanda · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
446 picks · 265 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
400 picks · 555 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
323 picks · 631 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
318 picks · 370 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
303 picks · 379 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 410 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
272 picks · 440 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
269 picks · 328 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:28
Invictus Gaming 63%Aster.Aries 37%
The model gave 63% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 33:14.
Game 2prediction missed23:38
Invictus Gaming 63%Aster.Aries 37%
The model gave 63% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 47:00.
Game 3prediction missed4:24
Invictus Gaming 63%Aster.Aries 37%
The model gave 63% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 43:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 63%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3