FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
393 picks · 879 bans
Void Spirit
366 picks · 528 bans
Mars
318 picks · 572 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 511 bans
Earth Spirit
282 picks · 242 bans
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
Wraith King
237 picks · 387 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 53%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect