The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
Marcisignature
Shanks · 21 game
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 16 games
Rubick
Shanks · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Tiny
Shanks · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
689 picks · 473 bans
Techies
612 picks · 644 bans
Doom
567 picks · 1110 bans
Disruptor
516 picks · 493 bans
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1235 bans
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1052 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 681 bans
Pangolier
450 picks · 919 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Invictus Gaming 45%Execration 55%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:08.
Game 2prediction correct42:35
Invictus Gaming 45%Execration 55%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 46:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 55%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2