ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 13 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 12 games
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
Doomsignature
DM · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1003 picks · 709 bans
Tiny
630 picks · 464 bans
Disruptor
577 picks · 425 bans
Nature's Prophet
564 picks · 912 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
520 picks · 366 bans
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1208 bans
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1098 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
Invictus Gaming 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 27:36.
Game 2prediction correct51:23
Invictus Gaming 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 49:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Accuracy by game2 of 2