Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Phoenix Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 3 games
Marsoften banned
zone- · 3 games
Bane
Lwwnb · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
M77 · 1 game
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 1 game
Elder Titan
Lwwnb · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 1 game
Grimstroke
Lwwnb · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
378 picks · 277 bans
Mars
372 picks · 541 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 194 bans
Weaver
309 picks · 720 bans
Queen of Pain
272 picks · 339 bans
Ember Spirit
239 picks · 312 bans
Disruptor
234 picks · 158 bans
Kunkka
228 picks · 394 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:10
Invictus Gaming 77%Phoenix Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 30:46.
Game 2prediction missed28:12
Invictus Gaming 77%Phoenix Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 35:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 77%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2