Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shenzhenloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
548 picks · 459 bans
Mars
438 picks · 688 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 541 bans
Bane
395 picks · 278 bans
Puck
355 picks · 814 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 577 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 637 bans
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 659 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:10
Invictus Gaming 61%Shenzhen 39%
The model gave 61% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 33:56.
Game 2prediction missed44:12
Invictus Gaming 61%Shenzhen 39%
The model gave 61% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 43:24.
Game 3prediction correct
Invictus Gaming 61%Shenzhen 39%
The model gave 61% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 61%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3