The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
308 picks · 173 bans
Lina
282 picks · 538 bans
Mars
278 picks · 407 bans
Hoodwink
272 picks · 98 bans
Pangolier
261 picks · 373 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 254 bans
Luna
229 picks · 328 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:20
Invictus Gaming 43%T1 57%
The model gave 57% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 37:39.
Game 2prediction correct26:26
Invictus Gaming 43%T1 57%
The model gave 57% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 40:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 57%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2