OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 17 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 13 games
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
434 picks · 180 bans
Hoodwink
316 picks · 124 bans
Nyx Assassin
316 picks · 626 bans
Puck
312 picks · 694 bans
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 476 bans
Mars
299 picks · 524 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 336 bans
Lina
266 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total64% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:13
Invictus Gaming 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 38:46.
Game 2prediction correct22:11
Invictus Gaming 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:34.
Game 3prediction correct40:19
Invictus Gaming 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 58:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 64%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3