ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Rubick
Poloson · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 11 games
Tinysignature
Boomy · 10 games
Mirana
Poloson · 9 games
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
Tusk
Moon · 7 games
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 704 bans
Tiny
632 picks · 466 bans
Nature's Prophet
571 picks · 920 bans
Disruptor
568 picks · 419 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 406 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1214 bans
Clockwerk
500 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:28
Invictus Gaming 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 53:10.
Game 2prediction correct35:9
Invictus Gaming 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 50%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2