ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Zeroloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Zero
Batridersignature
iceice · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
7e · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
7e · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iceice · 6 games
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
Warlocksignature
zzq · 6 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Cty · 5 games
Techiesoften banned
iceice · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 273 bans
Grimstroke
214 picks · 248 bans
Dark Willow
213 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
190 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
180 picks · 241 bans
Treant Protector
174 picks · 402 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Invictus Gaming 62%Team Zero 38%
The model gave 62% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming.
Game 2prediction missed18:42
Invictus Gaming 62%Team Zero 38%
The model gave 62% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Zero in 42:54.
Game 3prediction missed6:33
Invictus Gaming 62%Team Zero 38%
The model gave 62% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Zero in 23:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 62%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3