The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Lion
Pyw · 26 games
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 23 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 21 game
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
Pyw · 20 games
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
309 picks · 178 bans
Mars
295 picks · 409 bans
Lina
282 picks · 571 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 366 bans
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 258 bans
Tidehunter
249 picks · 420 bans
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
Void Spirit
234 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total52% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:39
Invictus Gaming 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 51:50.
Game 2prediction missed39:28
Invictus Gaming 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 46:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 52%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2