The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
Dy · 6 games
Bane
Dy · 6 games
Visageoften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
730 picks · 571 bans
Puck
505 picks · 1022 bans
Dawnbreaker
488 picks · 646 bans
Marci
466 picks · 810 bans
Winter Wyvern
377 picks · 420 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
Razor
303 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:34
Invictus Gaming 34%Xtreme Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:58.
Game 2prediction correct30:15
Invictus Gaming 34%Xtreme Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 66%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2