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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Paparazi · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 7 games
43%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ELeVeN · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
766 picks · 496 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 392 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 438 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
532 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
412 picks · 632 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
382 picks · 683 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
357 picks · 773 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total60% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
Invictus Gaming 40%Xtreme Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:37.
Game 2prediction correct34:45
Invictus Gaming 40%Xtreme Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:44.
Game 3prediction correct28:15
Invictus Gaming 40%Xtreme Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 60%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3