IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Иорданияloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Индонезияwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Иордания
No games played over 6 months.
Индонезия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
458 picks · 223 bans
Techies
449 picks · 485 bans
Batrider
393 picks · 656 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 599 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 698 bans
Timbersaw
328 picks · 767 bans
Undying
309 picks · 517 bans
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Иордания
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Иордания
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:16
Иордания 55%Индонезия 45%
The model gave 55% on Иордания — the game was taken by Индонезия in 30:09.
Game 2prediction missed47:15
Иордания 55%Индонезия 45%
The model gave 55% on Иордания — the game was taken by Индонезия in 27:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteИордания · 55%
Series resultИндонезия 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2