Road To Asian Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Иранwin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Туркменистанloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Иран
No games played over 6 months.
Туркменистан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
646 picks · 694 bans
Rubick
530 picks · 359 bans
Doom
506 picks · 1041 bans
Ember Spirit
422 picks · 902 bans
Beastmaster
407 picks · 1069 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 1002 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Pugna
379 picks · 451 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Иран
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Иран
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Иран 61%Туркменистан 39%
The model gave 61% on Иран — the game was taken by Иран.
Game 2prediction missed
Иран 61%Туркменистан 39%
The model gave 61% on Иран — the game was taken by Туркменистан.
Game 3prediction correct
Иран 61%Туркменистан 39%
The model gave 61% on Иран — the game was taken by Иран.
Model check result
Model favoriteИран · 61%
Series resultИран 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3