Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
IRLD2loss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TiltedBoyswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IRLD2
No games played over 6 months.
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 3 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Techies
bgod · 2 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
384 picks · 351 bans
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 332 bans
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 526 bans
Mars
315 picks · 460 bans
Techies
303 picks · 234 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 174 bans
Batrider
291 picks · 543 bans
Pangolier
282 picks · 433 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% IRLD2
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% IRLD2
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
IRLD2 60%TiltedBoys 40%
The model gave 60% on IRLD2 — the game was taken by IRLD2 in 33:23.
Game 2prediction missed8:33
IRLD2 60%TiltedBoys 40%
The model gave 60% on IRLD2 — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 24:01.
Game 3prediction missed21:52
IRLD2 60%TiltedBoys 40%
The model gave 60% on IRLD2 — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 49:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteIRLD2 · 60%
Series resultTiltedBoys 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3