ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionICit's coming romewin 1:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
it's coming rome
No games played over 6 months.
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
Magnussignature
Limitless · 8 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Davai · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 471 bans
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 621 bans
Puck
299 picks · 694 bans
Mars
296 picks · 524 bans
Hoodwink
272 picks · 114 bans
Lina
257 picks · 334 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% it's coming rome
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:14
it's coming rome 60%B8 Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on it's coming rome — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 30:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteit's coming rome · 60%
Series resultit's coming rome 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1