DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstensz Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ivory
Gyrocopteroften banned
Teehee · 8 games
Disruptorsignature
Dric~ · 6 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ken · 6 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Teehee · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 4 games
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
569 picks · 705 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 350 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 661 bans
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 548 bans
Snapfire
416 picks · 140 bans
Hoodwink
402 picks · 188 bans
Mars
378 picks · 520 bans
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Ivory
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ivory 69%Carstensz Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory.
Game 2prediction correct
Ivory 69%Carstensz Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory.
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 69%
Series resultIvory 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2