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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Rupido · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 6 games
17%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Karma丶 · 5 games
40%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Teehee · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 4 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
25%

Team Nemesis

Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 15 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 13 games
62%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 13 games
54%
Muerta
Muerta
Jhocam · 12 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 12 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Jaunuel · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
642 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 455 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 416 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 290 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
422 picks · 407 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 1104 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 844 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 570 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total70% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:37
Ivory 37%Team Nemesis 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 52:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKarma丶
46% · 157 games59% · 335 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritKen
46% · 211 games50% · 265 games
Ursa23savage
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterRupido
46% · 228 games58% · 346 games
SlardarJabz
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroTeehee
44% · 505 games45% · 144 games
Skywrath MageQ
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
RubickDric~
47% · 79 games58% · 90 games
Treant ProtectorJaunuel
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed22:13
Ivory 37%Team Nemesis 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Ivory in 43:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKarma丶
39% · 120 games59% · 64 games
Faceless Void23savage
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierKen
47% · 260 games55% · 251 game
SlardarMac
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerRupido
49% · 368 games56% · 152 games
UnderlordJabz
Underlord
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDric~
42% · 46 games52% · 166 games
PhoenixJaunuel
Phoenix
Bane
BaneTeehee
47% · 122 games52% · 283 games
Shadow DemonQ
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed20:12
Ivory 41%Team Nemesis 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Ivory in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKarma丶
53% · 140 games53% · 290 games
Ursa23savage
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
59% · 363 games45% · 135 games
BrewmasterJabz
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastRupido
51% · 204 games44% · 374 games
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDric~
55% · 309 games43% · 145 games
Skywrath MageQ
Skywrath Mage
Disruptor
DisruptorTeehee
51% · 322 games46% · 394 games
WarlockJaunuel
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 70%
Series resultIvory 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3