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DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesis Academyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Luna
Luna
Karma丶 · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Ken · 5 games
20%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
Ken · 5 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Rupido · 5 games
20%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
20%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Dric~ · 4 games
25%

Team Nemesis Academy

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 316 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
436 picks · 220 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 307 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 494 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 284 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
276 picks · 130 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 504 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Nemesis Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:29
Ivory 66%Team Nemesis Academy 34%
The model gave 66% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 42:52.
Game 2prediction missed37:57
Ivory 66%Team Nemesis Academy 34%
The model gave 66% on Ivory — the game was taken by Team Nemesis Academy in 1:03:41.
Game 3prediction correct39:19
Ivory 66%Team Nemesis Academy 34%
The model gave 66% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 36:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 66%
Series resultIvory 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3