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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Rupido · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Dric~ · 5 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Ken · 3 games
67%

Yangon Galacticos

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Ksh · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
JG · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
292 picks · 710 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 178 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
260 picks · 242 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 664 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
249 picks · 250 bans
45%
Pugna
Pugna
247 picks · 261 bans
55%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 638 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Ivory
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
Ivory 51%Yangon Galacticos 49%
The model gave 51% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 27:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainKen
56% · 28 games48% · 31 game
Faceless VoidKsh
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierRupido
41% · 81 game52% · 162 games
Sand KingYoung PH
Sand King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDric~
56% · 59 games
Disruptor
DisruptorTeehee
45% · 25 games
Game 2prediction missed29:33
Ivory 56%Yangon Galacticos 44%
The model gave 56% on Ivory — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 56:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerKen
54% · 86 games49% · 176 games
Templar AssassinKsh
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackRupido
61% · 164 games50% · 241 game
Dragon KnightYoung PH
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDric~
41% · 86 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTeehee
47% · 81 game
Game 3prediction missed21:32
Ivory 52%Yangon Galacticos 48%
The model gave 52% on Ivory — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRupido
53% · 145 games52% · 193 games
Nature's ProphetYoung PH
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
47% · 109 games52% · 201 game
DoomKsh
Doom
Snapfire
SnapfireDric~
42% · 56 games
Pugna
PugnaTeehee
50% · 84 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 59%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3