Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
11Monkeyzloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Marsoften banned
Max · 13 games
Tiny
Lowskill · 13 games
Bane
jmn- · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
Razoroften banned
Max · 7 games
Spirit Breaker
TheBloodySky · 7 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 6 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
490 picks · 446 bans
Mars
489 picks · 685 bans
Bane
461 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 512 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 569 bans
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 651 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 603 bans
Grimstroke
352 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:28
IVY 37%11Monkeyz 63%
The model gave 63% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by IVY in 45:24.
Game 2prediction correct14:34
IVY 37%11Monkeyz 63%
The model gave 63% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 33:17.
Game 3prediction missed22:16
IVY 37%11Monkeyz 63%
The model gave 63% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by IVY in 33:00.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 63%
Series resultIVY 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3