Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Lowskill · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Qupe · 6 games
Razoroften banned
TheBloodySky · 6 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
466 picks · 314 bans
Queen of Pain
426 picks · 526 bans
Weaver
378 picks · 567 bans
Mars
365 picks · 518 bans
Kunkka
297 picks · 495 bans
Spirit Breaker
283 picks · 522 bans
Snapfire
256 picks · 117 bans
Wraith King
256 picks · 343 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total69% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:34
IVY 31%Chicken Fighters 69%
The model gave 69% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 37:03.
Game 2prediction correct36:33
IVY 31%Chicken Fighters 69%
The model gave 69% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 52:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 69%
Series resultChicken Fighters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2