Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Mirana
Qupe · 22 games
Tiny
Qupe · 20 games
Tusk
Mo13ei · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 14 games
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 13 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 13 games
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 10 games
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
920 picks · 626 bans
Tiny
644 picks · 453 bans
Nature's Prophet
551 picks · 877 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 436 bans
Treant Protector
538 picks · 543 bans
Snapfire
494 picks · 333 bans
Death Prophet
474 picks · 1035 bans
Clockwerk
447 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:39
IVY 25%D2 Hustlers 75%
The model gave 75% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 32:40.
Game 2prediction correct11:30
IVY 25%D2 Hustlers 75%
The model gave 75% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 24:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 75%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2