Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DGG Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Tiny
Mo13ei · 17 games
Bane
jmn- · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Max · 10 games
Mirana
Qupe · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
Chensignature
jmn- · 7 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 7 games
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
539 picks · 455 bans
Mars
442 picks · 682 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 543 bans
Bane
395 picks · 281 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 584 bans
Puck
347 picks · 808 bans
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 542 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% IVY
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% DGG Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:26
IVY 48%DGG Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on DGG Esports — the game was taken by DGG Esports in 44:08.
Game 2prediction missed35:16
IVY 48%DGG Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on DGG Esports — the game was taken by IVY in 33:14.
Game 3prediction correct9:31
IVY 48%DGG Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on DGG Esports — the game was taken by DGG Esports in 30:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteDGG Esports · 52%
Series resultDGG Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3