Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Goonsquadwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 12 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 8 games
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Lowskill · 7 games
Razoroften banned
Max · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Qupe · 6 games
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
438 picks · 272 bans
Queen of Pain
389 picks · 496 bans
Weaver
355 picks · 495 bans
Mars
347 picks · 492 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 474 bans
Wraith King
250 picks · 335 bans
Death Prophet
245 picks · 345 bans
Grimstroke
242 picks · 172 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 78%
Hero pool strength55% Goonsquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
IVY 22%Goonsquad 78%
The model gave 78% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 31:15.
Game 2prediction correct7:39
IVY 22%Goonsquad 78%
The model gave 78% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 26:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 78%
Series resultGoonsquad 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2