Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MEMajori Edut na Minorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Miranasignature
Qupe · 20 games
Tiny
Qupe · 20 games
Tusk
Mo13ei · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 13 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 13 games
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 12 games
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
Doomsignature
OwnedMe · 10 games
Majori Edut na Minor
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
831 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
601 picks · 415 bans
Treant Protector
519 picks · 542 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 418 bans
Nature's Prophet
489 picks · 794 bans
Death Prophet
439 picks · 917 bans
Snapfire
435 picks · 306 bans
Clockwerk
389 picks · 287 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:2
IVY 56%Majori Edut na Minor 44%
The model gave 56% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 23:05.
Game 2prediction correct35:4
IVY 56%Majori Edut na Minor 44%
The model gave 56% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 20:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 56%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2