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1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 29 games
66%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 12 games
83%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Lowskill · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 11 games
36%
Chen
Chensignature
jmn- · 10 games
60%

No Bounty Hunter

Dazzle
Dazzle
Flash · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Flash · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
ArisE · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArisE · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
705 picks · 522 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
512 picks · 992 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
428 picks · 538 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
395 picks · 727 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 199 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 340 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
302 picks · 333 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
294 picks · 607 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:36
IVY 65%No Bounty Hunter 35%
The model gave 65% on IVY — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLowskill
52% · 16 games46% · 29 games
SniperShad
Sniper
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMo13ei
45% · 87 games59% · 59 games
LycankAAN
Lycan
Viper
ViperMax
41% · 57 games59% · 54 games
WindrangerAdzantick
Windranger
Warlock
Warlockjmn-
42% · 14 games57% · 104 games
Nyx AssassinFlash
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQupe
43% · 72 games
Game 2prediction missed29:35
IVY 64%No Bounty Hunter 36%
The model gave 64% on IVY — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 37:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorLowskill
53% · 167 games52% · 161 game
ViperShad
Viper
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMax
45% · 136 games46% · 161 game
TidehunterkAAN
Tidehunter
Puck
PuckMo13ei
46% · 239 games51% · 300 games
Void SpiritAdzantick
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyQupe
51% · 227 games56% · 167 games
Nyx AssassinFlash
Nyx Assassin
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenjmn-
47% · 20 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 77%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2