?
arrow_backBack to match
1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 36 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 17 games
71%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 16 games
44%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
54%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 13 games
31%

No Bounty Hunter

Dazzle
Dazzle
Flash · 6 games
33%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Shad · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
67%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Flash · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
33%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shad · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
732 picks · 562 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
522 picks · 1035 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
471 picks · 624 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
433 picks · 776 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
366 picks · 404 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
344 picks · 170 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 379 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
314 picks · 599 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:35
IVY 57%No Bounty Hunter 43%
The model gave 57% on IVY — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistLowskill
36% · 43 games55% · 107 games
LifestealerShad
Lifestealer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMo13ei
52% · 143 games50% · 204 games
LinaAdzantick
Lina
Mars
MarsMax
45% · 198 games54% · 100 games
LycankAAN
Lycan
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQupe
53% · 50 games50% · 56 games
DazzleFlash
Dazzle
Undying
Undyingjmn-
55% · 33 games
Game 2prediction missed28:42
IVY 55%No Bounty Hunter 45%
The model gave 55% on IVY — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverLowskill
46% · 215 games54% · 427 games
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckMo13ei
45% · 237 games64% · 20 games
RikiShad
Riki
Mars
MarsMax
46% · 362 games56% · 384 games
RazorkAAN
Razor
Snapfire
SnapfireQupe
40% · 278 games55% · 345 games
IoFlash
Io
Undying
Undyingjmn-
43% · 84 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 60%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2